Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $114,533$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.5 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,094.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(108,094.9\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,854$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(934 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,668.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,668.5\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,140$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $144,749$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.94 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{141,526.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 29.8)}}\) (asimptote \(141,526.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,007$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(481 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,040.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 30.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,040.3\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $36,712$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,579$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(2.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,354.8}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(16,354.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $265$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(43.3 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{254.1}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 25.7)}}\) (asimptote \(254.1\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,793$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $21,084$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(280 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,176.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 68.9)}}\) (asimptote \(25,176.4\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $208$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(5.85 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{301.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 47.5)}}\) (asimptote \(301.2\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,946$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,975$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(26.8 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.1\) days)
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $88$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(2.15 \times 10^{0.039t}\) (doubling rate \(7.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{435.0}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 55.1)}}\) (asimptote \(435.0\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,436$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $907$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(180 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{883.8}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 28.4)}}\) (asimptote \(883.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(6.26 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 13.3)}}\) (asimptote \(15.7\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $409$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $46,869$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(789 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67,579.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 56.7)}}\) (asimptote \(67,579.7\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $283$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(29.3 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{389.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(389.9\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,535$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $982$ on 2020-05-14
Best fit exponential: \(2.98 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(7.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,113.3}{1 + 10^{-0.080 (t - 58.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,113.3\))
Start date 2020-04-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4$ on 2020-05-14
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $933$ on 2020-05-14