Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $114,533$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.5 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,094.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(108,094.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,854$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(934 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,668.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,668.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,140$ on 2020-05-14

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $144,749$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.94 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{141,526.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 29.8)}}\) (asimptote \(141,526.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,007$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(481 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,040.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 30.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,040.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36,712$ on 2020-05-14

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,579$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(2.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,354.8}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(16,354.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $265$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(43.3 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{254.1}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 25.7)}}\) (asimptote \(254.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,793$ on 2020-05-14

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $21,084$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(280 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,176.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 68.9)}}\) (asimptote \(25,176.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $208$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(5.85 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{301.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 47.5)}}\) (asimptote \(301.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,946$ on 2020-05-14

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,975$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(26.8 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.1\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $88$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(2.15 \times 10^{0.039t}\) (doubling rate \(7.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{435.0}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 55.1)}}\) (asimptote \(435.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,436$ on 2020-05-14

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $907$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(180 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{883.8}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 28.4)}}\) (asimptote \(883.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(6.26 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 13.3)}}\) (asimptote \(15.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $409$ on 2020-05-14

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $46,869$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(789 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67,579.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 56.7)}}\) (asimptote \(67,579.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $283$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(29.3 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{389.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(389.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,535$ on 2020-05-14

Maldives⮸

Population $540,544$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $982$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(2.98 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(7.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,113.3}{1 + 10^{-0.080 (t - 58.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,113.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4$ on 2020-05-14

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $933$ on 2020-05-14

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 100%
Korea, South recovered 88%
Taiwan* recovered 84%
Israel recovered 61%
Turkey recovered 55%
Japan recovered 53%
Malaysia recovered 48%
Georgia recovered 26%
Sri Lanka recovered 20%
Kazakhstan recovered 5%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,029$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(4.97 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(111.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,532.5}{1 + 10^{-0.091 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,532.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.59 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,561.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 30.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,561.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $131$ on 2020-05-14

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,018$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(5.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,461.1}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10,461.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $260$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(62.1 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{260.5}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 32.8)}}\) (asimptote \(260.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $937$ on 2020-05-14

Taiwan*⮸

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $440$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(96.7 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{432.3}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(432.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-05-14

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50$ on 2020-05-14

Japan⮸

Population $126,476,461$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,120$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(930 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,444.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 53.0)}}\) (asimptote \(16,444.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $697$ on 2020-05-14

Best fit exponential: \(30 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{875.7}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 51.0)}}\) (asimptote \(875.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,555$ on 2020-05-14